SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE DEM CONVENTION – We aren't paying that much attention to the convention because the only really important moment comes Thursday night when the coaches and white horses pull up to the convention center in Philadelphia, and Hillary gives her acceptance speech.  Then we can compare Hillary with Trump, knowing that the nation is doing the same.  Thus far, the Bernie Sanders faction has been loud, rude and passionate, but they won't be able to change anything.  They have been booing Hillary's name, however Sanders himself is publicly pleading with them to get real, and get behind the nominee.  We'll know during Hillary's speech Thursday, the most important of her life, whether the party will heed Sanders's plea.  If it doesn't, Hillary is history.

HIDDEN TRUMPSTERS?  They seem to be cropping up all over.  From Bill Kristol at the Weekly Standard:  In any case, we were chatting with our waitress, a young (apparently single) mom who was looking forward to taking her two little kids to Disney World, where she'd never been, at the end of this busy work week. We drifted into a discussion of politics, and after some hesitation she acknowledged she intended to vote for Trump. Why, we asked? Because, she said, she had a low opinion of Hillary, thought Trump would be a strong leader and bring about change, and because of Trump's stance on law and order (one of her cousins is a policeman). I asked her whether she'd voted before. Yes, she said, she'd voted for Obama, hoping he'd bring about change, and feeling the Romney Republicans were out of touch with people like her. Wow, I thought. How many other Obama-Trump voters are out there? They're not the types who'll volunteer their views to pollsters. Could there be more of them than there are Romney-Clinton switchover voters? It strikes me as quite possible.  I'm getting that same sensation in just going out and talking to people.  It's clear that Trump has hidden support, and that his crudeness and, frankly, lack of knowledge, don't bother a whole mass of people who are fed up with the current establishment.

IS THIS REAL? – FROM BUSINESS INSIDER:   If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.  That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.  In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.  Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.  Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.  It's the first time in Silver's "Now-cast" forecast that Trump has been projected to win.  Look, it's early, and polling at this stage is more entertainment than political prognostication.  Having said that, it's also clear that Trump has been underestimated.  His political obituary was written just before every primary day, and torn up the next day.

July 25,  2016